The Battle for Canberra: Your Guide to the 2025 Australian Federal Election
By Peter Fraser
March 27, 2025
Australia Day, Sydney Harbour, 2004. Source: Australia Day
background
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has officially called the 2025 Australian federal election, scheduled for 3 May 2025. The announcement marks the beginning of a five-week campaign period leading up to the polling day. The 47th parliament has officially dissolved, marked by a traditional cannon fire ceremony at Parliament House.
The Caretaker period
The caretaker period began when the House of Representatives was dissolved. During this period, the government continues to handle essential administrative functions but avoids making major policy decisions, appointments, or entering into significant contracts. The purpose of this convention is to ensure that an incoming government is not bound by the significant decisions made by the previous government. Writs for the election must be issued within 10 days.
the Parties
Government (Labor Party)
Prime Minister Albanese stated that the election represents a clear choice between Labor’s plan to continue building the future and the Opposition’s proposals to introduce cuts.
Key messages:
Addressing global challenges, providing cost-of-living support, and building a prosperous future for all Australians.
Focus areas:
Economic management, healthcare, education, climate action, and infrastructure development.
Campaign messaging:
Albanese framed the election as a choice between “Labor’s plan to keep building or Peter Dutton’s promise to cut.” He emphasized the importance of social welfare measures such as Medicare, highlighting that Australians would be $7,200 worse off without Labor's cost-of-living initiatives.
Foreign policy:
Albanese pledged ongoing support for Ukraine, participation in international peacekeeping efforts, and hinted at Australia hosting a COP conference. He also emphasized Australia's resilience against potential foreign interference and is actively engaging with the Trump administration amid tariff concerns.
Economic policies:
Labor has offered tax cuts of $268 next year and $536 the following year to more than 12 million workers, alongside power bill relief, rental assistance, home care packages for the elderly, student debt reductions, and cheaper medicines.
Campaign strategy:
Labor has recently rolled out policies focusing on healthcare and social welfare to regain voter support. Albanese’s campaign is being positioned as one of “hope and optimism,” contrasting with the Coalition’s focus on economic recovery and cuts.
Opposition (Coalition – Liberal/National Parties)
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton faces a significant challenge in becoming Prime Minister of a majority Coalition government in the 48th parliament. He requires a net gain of 22 seats to secure a slim majority of 76 seats in the 150-seat parliament, which is more than the 17-seat net loss suffered by Scott Morrison in 2022. The Coalition currently holds 54 seats due to a by-election defeat and defections.
To achieve this, Dutton would need a political shift comparable to the 'Kevin 07' election victory, where Kevin Rudd secured a net gain of 23 seats. Additionally, historical comparisons include John Howard’s net gain of 29 seats in 1996 and Tony Abbott’s 18-seat gain in 2013.
Key messages:
Tax cuts, reducing public service jobs while preserving essential services, and prioritizing economic growth.
Policy proposals:
Implementing a gas reservation policy aimed at lowering electricity prices, scaling back the public sector by cutting 41,000 public service jobs, and redirecting resources to high-priority areas. The Coalition is also promising to reduce the cost of petrol through a $6 billion fuel excise cut.
Campaign messaging:
Dutton’s campaign slogan is “Let’s get our country back on track – so you can get ahead.” His first campaign advertisement focuses on cost-of-living issues, inflation, and rising power prices, portraying Labor’s economic management as a failure.
Campaign strategy:
The Coalition's digital strategy involves a 24/7 operation designed to respond rapidly to media requests and manage campaign materials. Dutton is also leveraging foreign policy concerns, portraying himself as better able to secure a favourable relationship with the Trump administration.
The Greens’
Leader:
Adam Bandt
Objective:
The Greens aim to force a minority Labor government and secure progressive policy commitments. Their “biggest ever national campaign” focuses on making corporations pay fair taxes, expanding Medicare to cover dental and mental health, capping rent increases, and pushing for stronger climate action.
Key quote:
“With a minority government predicted, the Greens will keep Dutton out and get Labor to act.” - Adam Bandt
Campaign Key issues
Cost-of-living crisis: Rising inflation and its impact on household budgets.
Housing shortages: The need for affordable housing solutions, particularly in metropolitan areas.
National security: Concerns about regional stability and Australia's defence posture.
Public service cuts: Labor has criticised the Coalition's pledge to cut 41,000 public service jobs, arguing it would affect critical services, including disaster relief and health services.
Foreign policy: Labor's engagement with the Trump administration amid concerns over new tariffs and continued participation in international peacekeeping efforts.
Climate change: Labor targets 43 percent emissions cut by 2030 with 82 percent renewable electricity, while the Coalition prefers gas, renewables, and nuclear power to achieve net zero by 2050.
Key seats to watch
Both major parties have identified critical battleground seats which may determine the outcome of the 2025 election.
Bennelong (NSW): Highly contested with Labor MP Jerome Laxale facing a tough challenge from Liberal candidate Scott Yung.
Bradfield (NSW): Liberal seat under threat from independent Nicolette Boele.
Gilmore (NSW): Labor’s Fiona Phillips faces a strong challenge from Liberal Andrew Constance.
Goldstein (VIC): Independent Zoe Daniel faces a rematch against former Liberal MP Tim Wilson.
Wannon (VIC): Incumbent Dan Tehan is challenged by independent Alex Dyson.
McEwen (VIC): Labor’s Rob Mitchell faces off against Liberal candidate Jason McClintock.
Brisbane (QLD): Greens MP Stephen Bates is under pressure from Labor and the LNP.
Leichhardt (QLD): Labor targets this seat as Liberal MP Warren Entsch retires.
Curtin (WA): Liberal Tom White against independent Kate Chaney.
Bullwinkel (WA): A three-cornered contest between Labor, the Nationals, and the Liberals.
Bass (TAS): Liberal MP Bridget Archer defending against Labor’s Jess Teesdale.
Sturt (SA): Liberal James Stevens facing a strong challenge from Labor’s Claire Clutterham.
Public opinion and polls
Recent opinion polls suggest a closely contested election, with the possibility of a hung parliament.
Analysts predict a tight race, driven by economic concerns and voter dissatisfaction with the status quo. The latest Newspoll (published on 10 March 2025) put the Coalition narrowly ahead on a two-party-preferred basis, 51-49, representing a swing of 3.1 per cent since the 2022 election.
Written by our partners at Stratagem Corporate Advisory. Published by Basilinna Institute.
