The Overnight Collapse of the Assad Regime: A New Era for Syria and the Middle East
By the Basilinna Team
December 8, 2024
An anti-regime fighter tears up a portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo, after HTC-dominated opposition forces entered the northern Syrian city on Nov. 29. (Credit: Mohammed AL-Rifai/AFP)
Your Talking Points
The rapid collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime marks a historic turning point for Syria and the region.
His fall disrupts long-standing alliances, weakening Iran’s influence, elevating Türkiye’s regional role, and prompting significant security developments, including Israel’s unprecedented actions in Syria.
Businesses must navigate both opportunities and risks as Syria faces reconstruction, shifting power dynamics, and governance challenges under new leadership.
What Happened
The unexpected and rapid collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has reshaped the Middle East overnight. Rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), advanced from their stronghold in Idlib, capturing Aleppo, Hama, and Homs before isolating Damascus. Within 12 days, Syria’s capital fell, signaling the end of over five decades of Assad family rule. Bashar al-Assad, who had been in power since 2000, reportedly fled Damascus early Sunday, leaving a power vacuum that is both historic and precarious.
The Syrian despot’s removal comes after a 13-year civil war where Assad failed to eliminate the rebellion or make peace with his opponents. With 12 million Syrians displaced worldwide, many enduring racism and hardship, any claim of victory under Assad’s rule rang hollow and came at an unbearable cost. As the economy crumbled, Assad allowed the army to traffic drugs to neighboring countries, transforming Syria into a de facto narco-state in a desperate attempt to secure loyalty. Even then, the Syrian army, weakened by years of war and corruption, offered minimal resistance as disillusioned soldiers abandoned their loyalty to Assad.
Türkiye, which has played a complex role in supporting Syrian rebels while balancing its own security concerns, emerges as a critical actor in shaping Syria’s future. Long opposed to Assad’s regime, Türkiye backed the rebels to weaken Assad’s ties with Iran, curtail Kurdish influence near its borders, and create a buffer zone for returning Syrian refugees. President Erdogan’s diplomatic efforts to resolve the refugee crisis and reduce instability may find renewed urgency in light of these changes. However, Türkiye’s relationship with HTS—a group labeled a terrorist organization, whose leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani is a wanted terrorist—adds complexity, particularly in dealing with Western powers. With Assad’s regime gone, Türkiye stands to gain control over northern Syria’s border regions, potentially resettling millions of refugees and reducing the Kurdish armed presence it views as a security threat.
Digging Deeper
1. What This Means for the Future of the Region
Geopolitical Shifts
The fall of Assad disrupts alliances and rivalries. Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” has been severely weakened, with its links to Hezbollah in Lebanon now compromised. This realignment will be welcomed by Israel, which sees Iran’s diminished presence in Syria as a strategic victory. For the first time since 1974, Israeli forces have crossed the border into Syria, underscoring a dramatic shift in regional security.
Türkiye, which has played a complex role in supporting Syrian rebels while balancing its own security concerns, emerges as a critical actor in shaping Syria’s future. President Erdogan’s recent diplomatic efforts to resolve the refugee crisis and reduce regional instability may find renewed urgency in light of these changes.
Iraq, which was vocal in its support of Bashar al-Assad, now faces a recalibration of its stance as the regional dynamics shift and Iranian influence wanes. Iraq’s future approach will be pivotal in determining the broader realignment of power in the region.
Western nations will face significant challenges in engaging with HTS—a group designated as a terrorist organization, led by the wanted terrorist Abu Mohammad al-Jolani—further complicating efforts to navigate Syria’s shifting power dynamics.
Security Concerns
HTS’s rise raises governance questions. While the group has tried to rebrand itself, its extremist roots make many wary. Infighting among rebel factions or a resurgence of ISIS could further destabilize the country.
Humanitarian Impact
With more than 12 million displaced Syrians, including 6 million refugees, the humanitarian crisis remains critical. Neighboring countries like Türkiye, Lebanon, and Jordan face pressure to manage the fallout, while international agencies must navigate new power dynamics.
2. Implications for Business
The fall of Assad opens a new chapter for economic activity in Syria and the broader region. For businesses, this moment offers both opportunities and risks that demand strategic foresight. The fall of a long-standing regime underscores the volatility of the Middle East, particularly at this moment, which could deter investors depending on their risk appetite.
Opportunities
Reconstruction Efforts: Decimated infrastructure creates demand for construction, energy, and telecommunications companies, with funds likely directed toward rebuilding.
Regional Integration: Assad’s fall could pave the way for Syria’s reintegration into trade networks. Türkiye, with its proximity and trade routes, and Gulf states may play critical roles in economic recovery.
Tech and Innovation: Rebuilding offers opportunities for tech-driven solutions in healthcare, education, and infrastructure, especially through partnerships with NGOs.
Challenges
Political Uncertainty: A lack of governance raises questions about regulatory stability, sanctions, and the safety of investments.
Sanctions and Compliance: Businesses must navigate complex sanctions and reputational risks, particularly regarding HTS’s controversial leadership.
Security Risks: The risk of intra-rebel clashes or ISIS’s resurgence adds unpredictability, requiring robust risk mitigation strategies.
Regional Ripple Effects
Energy Markets: Syria’s instability could impact energy supply routes, particularly if rebel factions or external actors vie for control of strategic areas.
Trade Dynamics: The realignment of power in Syria will influence trade flows in the Middle East. Countries like Türkiye and Iraq may see shifts in their economic relationships, while Gulf states could reassess their investments in the region.
Published by Basilinna Institute. All rights reserved.
