U.S. Election China Policy Update: What would Kamala do on China?
By Chynna Hawes
Kamala Harris' acceptance speech, Democratic National Convention, August 2024
Now that Vice President Kamala Harris has officially accepted the Democratic party nomination as the presidential candidate, the debate will move to the substance of the Democrats and Republican platforms. One of the key unknowns for candidate Harris is her views on foreign policy – and the extent of her experience. The United States is engaged in significant global crises – from peacemaking in the Middle East and as a supporter of Ukraine in its war against Russia – and China remains a top strategic priority with continued bilateral tensions and potential flash points in the Philippines and Taiwan.
Harris, unlike President Biden or Presidential-candidate Trump, has never been to China and does not have a relationship with any of the Chinese leaders. In the coming months, she will be under pressure to make clear her views on foreign policy and especially on China. For the immediate term, we expect her to follow the Biden policies but perhaps with her own twist, and with input from Vice Presidential-candidate Walz, who has extensive experience with China.
Here is what we know, and don’t know, about what’s shaping Harris’ views on foreign policy and China, and what we’re watching in the months ahead.
1. Harris is inheriting a tense but stable US-China relationship
A week after confirmation of Kamala Harris as the Democrat’s Presidential candidate, Jake Sullivan, Biden’s National Security Advisor took his first trip to China in that role to reassure China’s leadership that Presidential-candidate Harris is committed to “responsibly managing” the bilateral relationship. Sullivan also said that Harris “has been a leading member...of the overall strategy in the Indo-Pacific" with President Biden. He implied that Harris is likely to seek stability in the US-China relationship, maintaining the general direction set by President Biden to maintain high level engagement.
During this visit, Sullivan met with China’s top leadership, including President Xi Jinping, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and a Vice Chair of the Central Military Commission who has been critical of the US over Taiwan. The timing of Sullivan’s China trip, right after the historic withdrawal of Biden from the Presidential race, is not only to reassure the world’s largest country that the new Presidential candidate wants to continue to engage with China, but also to make clear that there is no leadership vacuum during this transition. With recent incidence of Chinese crossing into Japanese airspace, conflicts in the South China Sea and coordinated military exercises with China and Russia off the coast of Alaska, as well as the ongoing Taiwan issue and US trade restrictions, the chances of intentional or unintentional escalation are real. Sullivan’s visit also laid the groundwork for a phone call between the two Presidents, and a potential meeting on the margins of either the upcoming G20 Summit in Brazil or the APEC in Peru.
2. How much will President Biden influence her foreign policy?
While she had limited experience coming into office, Kamala Harris has been part of several foreign policy initiatives while serving as Biden’s Vice President. Over the last four years, she traveled frequently, engaging with world leaders across the Americas, Europe and Asia. She even had a “brief exchange” with President Xi in 2022 on the sidelines of an APEC Summit. Yet her impact was largely on the margins, as is typical for most Vice Presidents. Foreign affairs during the Biden administration was largely dominated by Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
When discussing America’s role in the world at the DNC, Harris used similar language to the President, referring to a struggle between democracy and “tyranny,” vs “autocracy” used by Biden. But foreign policy is unlikely to be a major focus of her campaign, given her background as a States Attorney and stronger familiarization with domestic issues. As such, candidate Harris will largely follow the Biden foreign policy outlines on major issues like China, Ukraine, the Middle East – she indicated as much in her first interview since accepting the nomination, which was light on foreign policy as expected. With just a few months to go, and as foreign policy is not a “voting” issue, she is unlikely to define more specific positions unless and until she wins.
Kamala Harris meeting President Xi Jinping, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, November 2022
3. Technology and national security will remain a focus.
As a first term Senator, Kamala Harris served on the Senate Intelligence Committee, when in addition to grappling with Russian cyber interference in US elections, she also received regular updates and conducted oversight on national security issues related to Chinese tech/telecom competition. Understandably, during her acceptance speech at the Democratic convention last week, Harris’ only direct reference to China was affirming her commitment to America’s global leadership in advanced technology and AI.
"I will make sure that we lead the world into the future on space and artificial intelligence; that America, not China, wins the competition for the 21st century, and that we strengthen, not abdicate, our global leadership."
As Vice President, she cast the deciding vote for the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) clean infrastructure bill and has been a champion of the CHIPS Act to bolster semiconductor manufacturing. Early indications are that candidate Harris will continue the Biden focus on industrial policy, more government engagement in the economy and a focus on “friendshoring” to promote and support the tech industry at home. In addition, we do not anticipate a change in the “small yard, high fence” approach to ensuring that US technology is not being used to support China’s military ambitions or dominance of the field. These policies are actually not dissimilar to the ones that candidate Trump is also supporting.
Overall, given the bipartisan support for national security over trade and globalization, we anticipate no significant change from the Biden policies on technology and national security should Harris win.
4. Harris has never been to China, but Time Walz has been 30+ times.
The Walz selection for Vice President raises interesting questions on what China policy would look like under a Harris administration. Whereas Harris has never been China, Tim Walz has been to China over 30 times over the course of his career, including on his honeymoon. From teaching to serving in Congress and as governor of Minnesota, a big agricultural state, Walz brings a varied view of the importance of people-to-people exchanges, as well as the trade relationship. However, his experience in China is already becoming a political weakness, which may encourage him to strike a tougher tone on China or be sidelined from China policy within a potential Harris administration.
Walz’s influence on foreign policy in a potential Harris administration is an open question. Some Vice Presidents have had significant influence, others less so, while others like Biden built important relationships with world leaders during their Vice Presidencies. It’ll be important to watch how the Harris-Walz relationship evolves and what role he takes on during the campaign, particularly as Harris picks her team of foreign policy advisors.
5. Who will be on her foreign policy team?
One of the clear indicators of the Harris position on the importance and the direction of foreign policy in her administration, should she win, is who she selects for top positions. While long time Biden aides like Jake Sullivan are likely to step down, others will be vying for cabinet positions should Harris win. Given Blinken’s ongoing shuttle diplomacy in the Middle East, there could be a transition considered for continuity in the negotiation process.
All eyes are currently on her National Security Advisor Philip Gordon, a “liberal internationalist” diplomat, whose book “Losing the Long Game” is a critique of America’s efforts at regime change in the Middle East. His background is in Europe – not Asia. Rebecca Lissner, Harris’ Deputy NSA, and Mira Rapp-Hooper, Biden’s National Security Council Director for East Asia and Oceania, are other figures to watch. They wrote: “An Open World: How America Can Win the Contest for Twenty-First-Century Order,” advocating pragmatic trade openness and cooperation on critical areas like climate. They could influence a shift in US foreign policy. We’ll be watching closely as other names begin to circulate.
Vice President Kamala Harris (right) speaks with her National Security Advisor Philip H. Gordon (left) during the 9th Summit of the Americas, 2022
6. China doesn’t care who wins.
With all the breathless speculation on which candidate China prefers, leading Chinese scholar and American studies specialist Wang Jisi weighed in: neither. The similarities between Biden and former Trump policies toward China have underscored to China’s policymakers that regardless of who wins in November, US policy toward China will continue to focus on elements of strategic competition.
“Chinese strategists hold few illusions that US policy toward China might change course over the next decade.”
