Expert Take | What Trump 2.0 Means for China-Latin America Relations
January 23, 2025
The world is closely watching President Trump as he embarks on his second term, following a whirlwind of campaign pledges. For this series, we turned to Basilinna’s network of over 50 experts to share their insights on what this next chapter could mean for their sectors and regions.
Expert Take from Basilinna Executive Director, Pepe Zhang
What does the second Trump administration mean for China-Latin America Relations?
Once a niche topic, the Latin America-U.S.-China (LUC) relationship is set to gain mainstream policy attention under Trump 2.0.
Washington will be the primary driver of this shift, with continued bipartisan support to counter China and an incoming senior foreign policy team unusually well-versed in Latin America. At a strategic level, the Trump administration's geo-economic thinking around LUC may be informed by 3 sets of agendas:
A pro-Latin America agenda grounded in nearshoring and other economic policies, reflective of genuine and increased US commitment to the region.
An anti-China agenda that limits China’s evolving economic influence and other advances in Latin America.
An America-first agenda that restores US hemispheric leadership, making “America safer,... stronger, …and more prosperous” without straining US resources or contradicting DOGE efforts.
How Washington balances these three agendas – plus how President Trump applies his distinctive policy approach and negotiation style – will not only dictate specific U.S. policies to shape LUC relations, but affect reception elsewhere of these efforts, especially in Latin America.
Beijing and Latin American capitals will respond accordingly and also seek to proactively shape LUC dynamics and outcomes. While bracing themselves for the unknown unknowns under Trump 2.0, they are focusing currently on the known unknowns. Indeed, a series of foreseeable high-stakes events and decisions are on the horizon: Mexico’s strategy towards the 2026 USMCA review including U.S. concerns over Chinese transshipment or manufacturing via Mexico; Panama’s response to U.S. interests in the Canal; Dominican Republic hosting the 10th Summit of the Americas; another Lula-Xi meeting (their third in two years) on the sidelines of the 2025 BRICS Leaders' Summit in Rio de Janeiro; the expected re-introduction of the Americas Act in the 119th U.S. Congress; etc.
With new U.S. tariffs and non-tariff barriers in sight, MNCs operating across Latin America, China, and the US will need to monitor these developments closely in the coming years.
As the LUC triangle becomes a new sandbox of rapid geopolitical and regulatory shifts, even firms from other parts of the world could extrapolate valuable lessons on risk mitigation and opportunity maximization.
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