Expert Take: What Trump 2.0 Means for Mexico
January 23, 2025
The world is closely watching President Trump as he embarks on his second term, following a whirlwind of campaign pledges. For this series, we turned to Basilinna’s network of over 50 experts to share their insights on what this next chapter could mean for their sectors and regions.
Expert Take from Basilinna Executive Director, Óscar Arcos
What does the second Trump administration mean for Mexico?
President Trump shakes hands with the 2017 president of Mexico, Enrique Peña Nieto during his first presidency, September 2017. Source: CNN
While January 20th marked the official beginning of Trump’s second administration, Mexico has long been preparing for his presidency, particularly in economic matters.
This challenge is not new for Mexico. In fact, the country not only survived Trump’s first term, but actually thrived.
During the political and economic uncertainty, they managed to sign the USMCA, which emerged as a pivotal instrument for regional development. Beyond strengthening trade ties among Mexico, the United States, and Canada, the agreement paved the way for a sustained economic recovery and attracted new foreign investment. From Mexico’s perspective, the country—now the United States’ largest trading partner—has the opportunity to look beyond the tumultuous first months of Trump 2.0, and even beyond the USMCA review set for 2026.
Mexico can and should aspire to a broader horizon of economic integration in North America. While the security and migration challenges already posed by Trump are significant, Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration is working to address these issues with an eye toward strengthening the region, though substantial hurdles persist, particularly those tied to competition with China.
The rise of nearshoring and the USMCA represent key points of alignment between the Mexican government and the private sector. The recently published Plan México suggests an understanding of the challenges and a willingness to seize the opportunities ahead. This approach must serve as a compass to guide Mexican policy through the complexities of the coming months.
The ultimate goal for both countries should transcend tariff negotiations, trade restrictions, and commercial disputes. The true opportunity stems from consolidating the world’s largest economic bloc.
With a combined GDP representing approximately 30% of the global economy, North America has the potential to forge, safeguard, and foster an economic zone that will be the epicenter of global economic growth for the decades to come.
What trump 2.0 means for the world
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