Expert Take: What Trump 2.0 Means for the Middle East and Africa
January 15, 2025
The world is closely watching President Trump as he embarks on his second term, following a whirlwind of campaign pledges. For this series, we turned to Basilinna’s network of over 50 experts to share their insights on what this next chapter could mean for their sectors and regions.
Expert Take from Basilinna’s Chair of the Middle East and Africa, Ambassador Yasser Elnaggar
What does the second Trump administration mean for the Middle East and Africa?
Donald Trump’s second term may differ from his first in terms of domestic and global priorities, but for the Middle East, expectations of meaningful change in U.S. policy remain low. A return to the “maximum pressure” strategy on Iran is anticipated, targeting the country’s regional influence through stringent sanctions designed to cripple its economy.
During his first term, these sanctions significantly reduced Iran’s oil exports and drove inflation higher, but they failed to achieve regime change or a new nuclear deal.
Many analysts predict similar outcomes this time around.
Trump’s foreign policy in the region is also expected to prioritize the expansion of the Abraham Accords, building on efforts to normalize relations between Israel and Arab states. However, the escalating humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the administration’s unwavering support for Israel may diminish the feasibility of broader regional cooperation. The recently brokered ceasefire deal, which required significant diplomatic pressure and negotiation, highlighted the role of the President-elect in securing Israeli acceptance. While this achievement may temporarily ease tensions, it does not address the underlying issues fueling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Trump’s approach is likely to shift U.S. support away from active military interventions while focusing on bolstering Israel’s security concerns. Yet, this strategy offers little hope for a sustainable political solution, leaving Palestinian grievances unaddressed and skepticism toward U.S. leadership in the region intact, despite the ceasefire serving as a short-term diplomatic success.
President Donald Trump shakes hands with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Source: Reuters
On the economic front, Trump’s protectionist trade policies, including proposed tariffs of 10% or more on imported goods, are expected to have a limited direct impact on the MENA region. Only countries with existing Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with the United States—such as Bahrain, Jordan, Morocco, and Oman—would likely face immediate shifts in trade dynamics. For these nations, U.S. tariff policies could disrupt established trade flows, making American goods more expensive or less accessible.
Figure 2. The United States has Free Trade Agreements in Force with 20 Countries
Source: Free Trade Agreements, Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.
For oil-exporting countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Trump’s pro-domestic oil stance could create new challenges by increasing U.S. energy production and intensifying competition in global markets. However, his commitment to rolling back environmental regulations might stimulate demand for fossil fuels, offering some balance to the challenges posed by higher U.S. energy output.
Meanwhile, the MENA region’s growing economic alignment with China, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative, is reshaping trade and investment patterns.
Countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt are leveraging Chinese investment in infrastructure and energy projects to reduce their dependence on the U.S. and Europe.
Trump’s protectionist stance, in contrast with China’s “no strings attached” approach to economic cooperation, positions Beijing as an increasingly attractive partner for MENA nations. This shift allows regional economies to navigate away from Western pressures and pursue development goals aligned with their national aspirations, signaling a transformative period in global economic alliances.
What trump 2.0 means for the world
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