Expert Take: What Trump 2.0 Means for Trade Policy and the Americas
January 22, 2025
The world is closely watching President Trump as he embarks on his second term, following a whirlwind of campaign pledges. For this series, we turned to Basilinna’s network of over 50 experts to share their insights on what this next chapter could mean for their sectors and regions.
Expert Take from Basilinna’s Chair of the Americas, Tech and Trade, Jake E. Jennings
What does the second Trump administration mean for trade policy and the Americas?
Donald Trump in West Palm Beach. Source: Doug Mills / NY Times
Trump 2.0’s international trade policy is already intertwining economic, technological, and national security priorities. He wasted no time in reshaping U.S. trade and national security policy on his first day in office with several executive orders asserting his “America First” policy and laying the groundwork for more tariffs.
The prospect of tariffs has put key U.S. trade partners Canada and Mexico on notice, making them a focal point in Trump’s broader geopolitical strategy alongside China, and are namely aimed to create leverage to address key bilateral concerns — such as immigration, drug trafficking, and trade imbalances.
Another cornerstone of the Administration’s likely policy will be the re- and near-shoring of critical supply chains to the Americas to reduce U.S. dependence on China and bolster economic and national security. However, the prospect of “universal tariffs” on imports would diminish the opportunity and raise the potential for retaliatory tariffs – which some economies are already preparing.
For countries like Mexico, Brazil, and Colombia, this shift could create opportunities in sectors like critical minerals, advanced technologies, and 5G networks.
This process would be lengthy and require substantial investments in infrastructure and workforce development, creating complexities, costs, and uncertainty for U.S. companies and Latin American partners.
While countering Chinese influence remains a top priority, increased attention on Latin America could lead to strategic economic partnerships and targeted investment initiatives in the region.
Donald Trump arrives at election night watch party. Source: Julia Demaree Nikhinson / AP
These efforts could make it more challenging for Chinese firms in certain critical industries such as telecommunications, logistics and natural resources to expand in the region, and challenge Latin American economies to balance their economic relations with both the U.S. and China.
Measures like enhanced scrutiny of imports to prevent circumvention of U.S. tariffs could also further complicate trade flows and technological cooperation with Latin America.
By focusing on re-shoring supply chains and counterbalancing China’s influence, the administration could reshape U.S.- American relations while introducing new challenges tied to costs, infrastructure demands, and geopolitical tensions.
What trump 2.0 means for the world
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